Sandra Finley

2018-06-01 Every Canadian Unknowingly Gives $100 a Year to Big Oil, Study Reveals, Motherboard

Climate, Energy No Responses »

Jun 152018

And that’s before the Trudeau government blew $4.5 billion on the Trans Mountain pipeline.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywe53k/canada-oil-gas-subsidies-g7-fossil-fuel-scorecard

Stephen Leahy

Jun 6 2018, 6:00am

Image: Shutterstock

While paying near record-high gasoline prices, Canadians will be thrilled to know every woman, man, and child in Canada also “donates” around $100 ($77 USD) to profitable, and often foreign-owned, oil and gas companies. That donation, in the form of federal and provincial subsidies, amounted to an average $3.67 billion ($2.84 billion USD) annually in 2015 and 2016. That makes Canadians the most generous among the G7 nations, a new study reveals.

The study documents how much support each G7 country doles out to oil, gas, and coal industries. Using this data Motherboard calculated that government support for oil and gas production averaged $100 per Canadian in 2015 and in 2016—or $400 ($308 USD) for a family of four. That’s far more generous than larger economies like the US and Japan that gave the industry $60 ($46 USD) and $50 ($39 USD) per person respectively.

Under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canada’s Liberal government promised to be a leader in cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions driving climate change. But it still provides the most government support for oil and gas production per unit of GDP, according to the G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard study, released in advance of the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, on June 8 and 9.

“These subsidies are in fundamental conflict with Canada’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement,” study co-author Yanick Touchette, policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), an independent think tank based in Canada, told me. Under the Paris climate agreement, Canada, and virtually every other nation in the world, agreed to dramatically cut CO2 emissions that result from using fossil fuels.

Two-thirds of Canadians disagree with oil and gas companies getting subsidies mainly because it worsens pollution and climate change, according to a new opinion poll released Monday. Virtually all Canadians want the federal government to disclose how much oil and gas companies receive in public money.

The Trudeau government’s recent $4.5 billion ($3.5 billion USD) purchase of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline will likely involve yet more subsidies for the oil industry, Touchette said. After all, no other investor wanted to buy the controversial pipeline that pumps oil products from Alberta oil sands to the BC coast. “The government hasn’t released its economic analysis of the purchase so we don’t know how much of a subsidy it will involve,” said Touchette.

To put the $3.67 billion in oil and gas subsidies in perspective, the federal government and the four largest provinces in Canada spend about $29 billion ($22.4 billion USD) a year on subsidies to the business sector, which includes the oil and gas industry, according to a recent University of Calgary research paper. Alberta is by far the most generous, with each Albertan in effect donating $640 ($494 USD) to various business sectors in the fiscal year 2014-15. Alberta is also the least transparent in letting the public know about its subsidies, the paper noted.

“These subsidies are in fundamental conflict with Canada’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement.”

To be clear, subsidies are not usually cash handouts. They’re a mix of tax breaks, tax credits, and regulations that forgo government revenue, transfer liability, or provide services such as loan guarantees or equity infusions at below-market rates. These are often well hidden from public view. The study also found Canada to be a leader in its lack of transparency regarding subsidies, Touchette said.

Not all subsidies are bad. Some can help small business or support new industries. In 2009 Canada, under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, and other G7 nations promised to reform environmentally harmful subsidies and eliminate those supporting fossil fuels because they distort markets, impede investment in clean energy sources, and frustrate efforts to address climate change.

While Canada has eliminated support for coal, it continues to provide billions in support of oil and gas production amounted to paying $19 ($15 USD) for every ton of CO2 the industry emitted, Motherboard estimates.

Canada’s fossil fuel subsidies also undermine the purpose of carbon pricing, meant to discourage investments in producing more fossil fuel, according to Touchette. The Trudeau government has mandated a national carbon pricing system where oil and gas companies and other major CO2 emitters will have to pay $10 ($8 USD) per ton of CO2 emitted starting in September, and rising to $50 ($39 USD) a ton by 2022.

This week’s G7 meeting in Charlevoix is an opportunity for the Trudeau government to take the next logical step and produce a concrete plan to phase out its fossil fuel subsidies in the next few years, according tosaid Alex Doukas of Oil Change International, an organization focusing on showing the true costs of fossil fuels.

“Canada can use its G7 presidency as an opportunity to pressure its peers to do the same,” said Doukas in a release.

G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard ranks countries on their transparency, commitments, and progress made on ending support for the production and use of oil, gas, and coal despite repeated pledges to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025. That support from G7 governments amounts to at least $100 billion USD each year, the study found.

The scorecard ranks Canada third best of the seven, giving it high marks for ending public financing of coal-fired power and not encouraging fossil fuel consumption by artificially keeping prices low. The US ranked last—for continuing to subsidize exploration and production and backtracking on previous pledges.

2018-06-15 Unapproved genetically modified wheat found in Canada (CBAN)

Genetically Modified No Responses »

Jun 152018

With thanks to CBAN

June 15, 2018. Halifax – The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has announced the discovery of unapproved genetically modified (GM, also called genetically engineered) wheat near a farm in Alberta, but says the contamination is an isolated event.(1)

“We’re relieved this is an isolated contamination case but we’re concerned that the government couldn’t determine how it happened. Without knowing the cause, contamination could happen again,” said Lucy Sharratt of the Canadian Biotechnology Action Network (CBAN).

Monsanto’s glyphosate-tolerant GM trait was found in several wheat plants on a road in southern Alberta in 2017. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency was unable to identify the cause.

“A less isolated GM wheat contamination incident could be devastating to Canadian farmers and the future of our wheat exports,” Thibault Rehn of the Quebec network Vigilance OGM, “We can’t afford to be careless with GM crops because it’s difficult or impossible to reverse contamination once it occurs.”

Canada is a major wheat-producing nation. Wheat crops contribute $11 billion annually to Canada’s economy.

Genetically modified wheat is not approved by any government and is therefore illegal. No GM wheat has ever been commercially grown or sold in any country in the world. Monsanto last grew test plots of wheat with this GM trait in 2004 in Canada.

In 2004, Monsanto withdrew its request for approval of its GM herbicide-tolerant (glyphosate-tolerant) “Roundup Ready” wheat in Canada and the US due to pressure from farmers and consumers along with international market rejection.

There have been three contamination incidents in the US with Monsanto’s GM wheat – in 2016, 2014 and 2013. In 2013, several countries suspended wheat imports from the US after GM wheat plants were discovered in a farmer’s field. The US government was unable to determine the cause of that contamination. (2)

“Farmers should be consulted before GM crops are tested outside the lab. We need to determine if the economic risk is too high to field-test certain GM crops,” said Sharratt.

The exact locations of experimental GM crop field trials in Canada are not disclosed.

“We need to protect our bread basket from rogue GM traits,” said Sharratt.

-30-

For more information: Lucy Sharratt, Canadian Biotechnology Action Network, 613 809 1103; Thibault Rehn, Vigilance OGM, 514 582 1674.

NOTES:
(1) The detection report and related documents from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency are posted at http://inspection.gc.ca/wheatdetection
(2) Media background on GM wheat is posted at www.cban.ca/wheat

2018-04-20 HSBC to stop financing most new coal plants, oil sands, arctic drilling, Reuters

Climate, Energy No Responses »

Jun 132018

LONDON (Reuters) – Europe’s largest bank HSBC said on Friday it would mostly stop funding new coal power plants, oil sands and arctic drilling, becoming the latest in a long line of investors to shun the fossil fuels.

Other large banks such as ING and BNP Paribas have made similar pledges in recent months as investors have mounted pressure to make sure bank’s actions align with the Paris Agreement, a global pact to limit greenhouse gas emissions and curb rising temperatures.

“We recognize the need to reduce emissions rapidly to achieve the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement… and our responsibility to support the communities in which we operate,” Daniel Klier, group head of strategy and global head of sustainable finance, said in a statement.

HSBC said it would make an exception for coal-fired power plants in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam.

“There’s a very significant number of people in those three countries who have no access to any electricity,” HSBC CEO John Flint told HSBC shareholders at the bank’s annual general meeting in London on Friday.

“The reasonable position for us is to allow a short window for us to continue to get involved in financing coal there… if we think there is not a reasonable alternative,” he said.

Aside from the coal exemptions environmental campaigners Greenpeace welcomed the move and said HSBC’s new energy strategy would prevent it from providing project finance for TransCanada Corp’s proposed $8 billion Keystone XL oil pipeline to Nebraska.

“This latest vote of no-confidence from a major financial institution shows that tar sands are becoming an increasingly toxic business proposition,” John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK said in a statement.

Reporting By Susanna Twidale; Additional reporting by Lawrence White; Editing by Susan Fenton

2018-06-05 What a joke! We bought a crappy pipeline with taxpayer’s money, Common Ground.

Bank of Canada vs Canada Infrastructure Bk, Banksters, Privatization & Trade Deals, COMER, Climate, Corruption, Energy No Responses »

Jun 112018

https://commonground.ca/ Common Ground, June 2018

You need a gun to rob a bank, but you need a bank to rob a country!

Recommend: go to the link above. There are a number of good articles re – – What a joke! We bought a crappy pipeline with taxpayer’s money.

Related (just so you know who we’re bailing out, and why):

5 minute Video shows Canadian banks, how much each one has in loans & commitments for tar sands & pipeline expansion

EXCERPT from one of the articles, How Trudeau’s lies differ from Trump’s lies

Big Bank Bails

HSBC is Europe’s biggest bank and one of the ten largest banks in the world. On April 21, 2018 it announced that it will no longer fund oil or gas projects in the Arctic, Alberta tar sands projects, and most coal projects.

This decision signals to Justin Trudeau that the era of fossil fuels is coming to a close.

Daniel Klier, global head of sustainable finance at HSBC, said that the bank recognizes “the need to reduce emissions rapidly to achieve the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global temperatures rises to well below 2°C and our responsibility to support the communities in which we operate.”

Formerly, HSBC was one of the heaviest investors in fossil fuels. A report, entitled “Banking on Climate Change”, endorsed by dozens of environmental groups, ranked HSBC the seventh worst in the world for the financing of “extreme fossil fuels.” It also found that from 2016 to 2017, “Even as the impacts of climate change become increasingly apparent”, it made a $2.6 billion increase in such financing.

Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada, advised Trudeau, who is about to invest taxpayers’ dollars to make sure the Kinder Morgan pipeline gets built, to take warning in HSBC’s shift.

“Before deciding to write a cheque to Kinder Morgan, Justin Trudeau should ask himself if he wants to rush in where HSBC fears to tread,” said Stewart.

Myth vs Truth

Myth – If we could get the Alberta bitumen to Asia, it would fetch a much higher price than it currently does in the U.S.

Truth – Alberta bitumen is already getting the best possible price through existing pipelines to the US, which access the largest heavy oil refineries in the world. Few refineries in Asia currently can refine it. No tankers of Alberta bitumen went to Asia from Westridge terminal in 2017.

Myth – There is widespread support of First Nations along the route for the KM pipeline project.

Truth – Fewer than 1/3 of the First Nations along the pipeline and tanker route have signed Mutual Benefit Agreements (MBAs) or a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOUs) which basically state that a First Nation, Community, college or university will receive money from the pipeline corporation … but only if the pipeline gets built. This has been bragged about as an endorsement by the pipeline promoters. Support seems to be waning. The company boasts of having 43 agreements. A year ago it was reported there were 51. More significantly, the Tsleil-Waututh, in whose territory Kinder Morgan’s Westridge terminal is located, and the Secwepemc whose territories encompass more than half the pipeline’s length, are adamantly opposed.

Myth – Bitumen sinks in fresh water but not in salt water.

Truth – Bitumen sinks (and stinks) when toxic diluents evaporate in both fresh and salt waters. Sinking happens fast when bitumen comes in contact with sediments. Sediments are abundant in the Fraser River’s brown coloured outflow around Vancouver and into the Salilsh Sea.

Myth – A world-class spill response team can clean up most of the oil in an oil spill.

Truth – A recovery of 10 – 20% of the oil is considered a good clean up job by industry and government. 80% or more cannot be recovered. It disperses and pollutes the beaches, intertidal zones and ocean bottom for decades. Other difficulties make land based spills, except the smallest, impossible to completely clean up.

Myth – The Alberta oil patch drives the Canadian economy.

Truth – The Alberta oil patch generates only 2% of Canada’s GDP.

A Twisted “Carbon Tax”

If diluted bitumen starts flowing down the x-KM new pipeline, gas prices at the pumps in B.C. will go up. No lie.

They figured out a clever way to fund their new pipeline. Make British Columbians pay for it.

Here’s how it was supposed to work. Kinder Morgan got the National Energy Board (NEB) to approve an increase in toll rates of $5 a barrel on all refined products pumped down the old KM pipeline after the new pipeline is completed and in operation.

This little reported NEB decision will more than double the charge KM now levies to deliver a barrel of gasoline or diesel to B.C.

One economist has calculated that it would have delivered enough extra revenue to KM over the 35 year life of the pipeline to pay for the whole expansion project and would cost B.C. motorists 10 to 15 cents more per litre of gas.

Another little-known fact. The new pipeline will be exclusively dedicated to transporting unrefined bitumen for export. B.C. gets no benefits, except for 50 more long-term jobs (an estimate provided by Kinder Morgan to the NEB during the hearings) after it is built.

When a prominent pipeline supporter discovered this, nearly speechless, he muttered “Well, I’ve been duped!” and instantly became a pipeline opponent.

2018-05-26 Five minute Video shows Canadian banks, how much each one has in loans & commitments for tar sands & pipeline expansion

Bank of Canada vs Canada Infrastructure Bk, Banksters, Privatization & Trade Deals, COMER, Climate No Responses »

Jun 112018

“Follow the money” starts at about the 4:10 minute marker in this 5 minute video (bottom of this posting).

– — – – – – – – – – –

Kinder Morgan Expansion: A Doomed Project

Kinder Morgan, Video May 26, 2018

Video by Action in Time. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion plan is doomed. In the words of Mitchell Anderson, “No amount of cheerleading, or demonizing or pixie dust will change the raw laws of global oil economics. Devised in days of high prices, the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is obsolete.”

Reach beyond

Empowerment No Responses »

Jun 112018

Reach beyond the expectations of others.

2018-06-01 Exploring the root causes of inequality & Changing the way we work to build a more livable society (The Death of Homo Economicus: Work, Debt and the Myth of Endless Accumulation Paperback, Peter Fleming)

Corporatocracy or Democracy or Administrative State or WHAT?, Culture and Ethics, Economy / Political Economy No Responses »

Jun 112018

The links and background for both segments of the discussion are in this one posting.

CBC Radio · June 1

Exploring the root causes of inequality (Segment 1)

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-june-3-2018-1.4685998/exploring-the-root-causes-of-inequality-1.4687264

The Death of Homo Economicus: Work, Debt and the Myth of Endless Accumulation by Peter Fleming.

Listen 39:06

This is the first of two interviews with Professor Peter Fleming. In this episode, Fleming gives his analysis of an economy in which the public sphere has been plundered by the billionaire class. In Part 2, he will discuss possible escape routes from this version of economic dystopia.

The philosopher John Stuart Mill pondered the evolution of our species under capitalism in the 19th Century when he coined the term homo economicus. Humans were defined as economic creatures, making rational decisions based on their own economic self-interest.

Homo economicus really found a niche in the industrialized West from the Second World War to the 1980s. Good-paying jobs were plentiful. Living standards, life expectancy and real income improved dramatically.

However, the past four decades have meant a slow strangulation of homo economicus.

In the decade since the financial crisis of 2008, we’ve seen the decline and fall of good paying jobs with benefits and the rise of inequality and the precariat. Now we’re being warned about a future without jobs as we have come to know and depend upon them.

Robots install rivets on a 2015 Ford F-150 truck at the Dearborn Truck Plant in Dearborn, Mich. Cheaper, better robots will replace human workers in the world’s factories at a faster pace over the next decade, pushing manufacturing labor costs down 16 per cent, a report from the Boston Consulting Group said on Feb. 10, 2015. (Paul Sancya/Associated Press)

And the millionaire and billionaire bankers who brought the global economy to the brink of collapse and who were subsequently bailed out by taxpayers? They’re doing just great, thank you.

For all too many people facing uncertain futures in Western societies, the economy just isn’t working for them. Or just not working, period.

But if you read Peter Fleming, you might come away convinced that the problem is that the economy is working precisely the way the very wealthy and their agents in government want it to.

Peter Fleming is Professor of Business and Society at the Cass Business School at City University London. He’s the author of The Mythology of Work, and his new book is The Death of Homo Economicus: Work, Debt and the Myth of Endless Accumulation.

= = = = = = = = = = = =

CBC Radio · June 8

Changing the way we work to build a more livable society (Segment 2)

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-june-10-2018-1.4695635/changing-the-way-we-work-to-build-a-more-livable-society-1.4695668

A rider for the food delivery service Deliveroo makes a food delivery in London, England. (Jack Taylor/Getty Images)

Listen 32:44

This is the second part of an interview with Professor Peter Fleming, the author of ‘The Death of Homo Economicus: Work, Debt and the Myth of Endless Accumulation’. In part one, Fleming discusses the root causes of economic inequality.

Philosopher John Stuart Mill defined human beings as ‘homo economicus’, economic creatures making rational decisions based on their own economic self-interest.

For a few decades in the postwar era, there was a tacit, informal contract between the state, the business world and the homo economicus. The average person would vote for a mainstream political party, obey the law, pay taxes, buy a car and a house. In return, they would get a decent paying job with benefits to pay for it all.

But according to Professor Peter Fleming, decades of neoliberal economic policy in western democracies have reduced everything to the logic and needs of free markets, including governments and the services they provide. Fleming believes the public sphere has been denuded and captured by corporations and the wealthy while the average person is left anxious and precariously employed.

Fleming says the homo economicus are no longer economic actors. Rather, they’re being acted on and determined by economic forces beyond their control. Their humanity has been eclipsed by their economic value or cost and they’re seen by governments and business alike simply as assets or liabilities.

Peter Fleming is Professor of Business and Society at the Cass Business School at City University London. In the second part of his interview with Michael Enright, he speaks about the nature of work today and how he thinks a better way of life might be possible.

Click ‘listen’ at the top of the page to hear Michael Enright’s conversation with Professor Peter Fleming.

2018-06-11 The River, song by Coco Love Alcorn (Canadian)

Empowerment, Water No Responses »

Jun 112018

Our network began almost 20 years ago, in an effort to protect water.

– – – – – – – – – – – –

Young Canadian Coco Love Alcorn, songwriter and musician, wrote The River. In the youtube, she’s the one with short black hair, front, left.

coco love alcorn

Published on Apr 15, 2016

Two nights ago I went to visit Karla Mundy and her Rhythm ‘n Roots choir in Vancouver. I stood and listened as they sang their version of my song The River. It was an incredible moment to hear a song I’d written 2 years ago come to life with their soloist Noa Neuman Spivak and 40 plus voices. In less than a minute I was wiping some misty tears of joy and raw emotion off my cheeks. Like a proud song mama!

(Sandra speaking) I like the video! The lyrics are below. From “The River” I went to Coco’s song “Revolution“. Crazy how I came across Coco at a time when I was posting “Hear the People Sing“, a now international song of protest from “Les Miserables”.

From the album Wonderland

Lyrics

The river is a healer
The river is a sage
The river knows no end
And the river feels no age
The river is a leader
Every single day
It’s living in the moment
And it always finds a way

Water heal my body
Water heal my soul
When I go down, down
To the water
By the water I feel whole

The river calls me over
It’s calling out my name
In the day and in the night
I hear that river all the same
It’s calling me over
Calling out my pain
Oh a river gathers tears
Just like a river gathers rain

The river is a traveller
Always on the go
A river never worries
If it’s fast or if it’s slow
River take me
To where I need to go
Oh, and I will just relax
And let the river flow

2017-01-12 The Man Who Knew Infinity (book and film). Plus Helliwell Pictures (Glimpses of Heaven & High Plains Doctor)

Culture and Ethics, Empowerment, Health No Responses »

Jun 072018

The Man Who Knew Infinity (book Robert Kanigel 1991 and movie 2015).

The story of real-life mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan, who, after growing up poor in Madras, India, earns admittance to Cambridge University during World War I, where he becomes a pioneer in mathematical theories working with his professor, G. H. Hardy.

Hardy and Ramanujan had highly contrasting personalities. Their collaboration was a clash of different cultures, beliefs, and working styles. Hardy was an atheist and an apostle of proof and mathematical rigour, whereas Ramanujan was a deeply religious man who relied very strongly on his intuition.

Ramanujan’s life on Wikipedia is more informative than write-ups written in reference to the movie. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srinivasa_Ramanujan:

Near the end of the movie after Hardy learns that Ramanujan, back in India has tragically died at age 32:

. . . every positive integer is one of Ramanujan’s personal friends . . An equation for him had no meaning unless it expressed the thought of God.

Well, despite everything in my being set to the contrary, perhaps he is right for is this not exactly our justification for pure mathematics? We are only mere explorers of infinity in the pursuit of absolute perfection. We do not invent these formulii. They already exist. And lie in wait for only the very brightest of minds like Ramanujan’s ever to divine and prove. So in the end I have been forced to consider Who are we to question Ramanujan? let alone God.

POSTED ON FACEBOOK PAGE FOR HELLIWELL PICTURES

I just re-watched your film “Glimpses of Heaven“. The light that shines through by the end is worth every minute of the beginning darkness. What a wonderful gift you and the 3 people who tell their story, have given to us. I am forwarding it to others; it will be helpful in their lives and communities. With many thanks to everyone who played a role in this artful work.

2. Oh! That’s where I recognize your logo from – – I see where “High Plains Doctor” is also one of your films. Wow – – just think of neural pathways in our brains being activated by streams of the stories you tell. We’d have a sea-change, as in the original use of that word by Shakespeare in The Tempest; an element of the supernatural involved. I think Wayne (Glimpses of Heaven) might call that the “life force” at work. George might call it, in part, “the inner voice” that brought him to his sister. And Peter might call it fortuitous encounters – – the right person at the right time. Or the fact that he was meant to live. (I don’t like speaking for other people; I won’t have captured the complexities.) Once again, many thank-you’s.

2018-06-04 ‘Carbon bubble’ could spark global financial crisis, study warns, The Guardian

Climate, Energy No Responses »

Jun 052018

From The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/carbon-bubble-could-spark-global-financial-crisis-study-warns?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=277105&subid=8093198&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent

Advances in clean energy expected to cause a sudden drop in demand for fossil fuels, leaving companies with trillions in stranded assets

A sudden drop in demand for fossil fuels could happen before 2035, a new study shows. Photograph: Florian Gaertner/Photothek via Getty Images

Plunging prices for renewable energy and rapidly increasing investment in low-carbon technologies could leave fossil fuel companies with trillions in stranded assets and spark a global financial crisis, a new study has found.

A sudden drop in demand for fossil fuels before 2035 is likely, according to the study, given the current global investments and economic advantages in a low-carbon transition.

The existence of a “carbon bubble” – assets in fossil fuels that are currently overvalued because, in the medium and long-term, the world will have to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions – has long been proposed by academics, activists and investors. The new study, published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that a sharp slump in the value of fossil fuels would cause this bubble to burst, and posits that such a slump is likely before 2035 based on current patterns of energy use.

Crucially, the findings suggest that a rapid decline in fossil fuel demand is no longer dependent on stronger policies and actions from governments around the world. Instead, the authors’ detailed simulations found the demand drop would take place even if major nations undertake no new climate policies, or reverse some previous commitments.

That is because advances in technologies for energy efficiency and renewable power, and the accompanying drop in their price, have made low-carbon energy much more economically and technically attractive.

Dr Jean-François Mercure, the lead author, from Radboud and Cambridge universities, told the Guardian: “This is happening already – we have observed the data and made projections from there. With more policies from governments, this would happen faster. But without strong [climate] policies, it is already happening. To some degree at least you can’t stop it. But if people stop putting funds now in fossil fuels, they may at least limit their losses.”

By moving to a lower-carbon footing, companies and investors could take advantage of the transition that is occurring, rather than trying to fight the growing trend. Mercure said fossil fuel companies were likely to fight among each other for the remaining market, rather than have a strong impact on renewable energy businesses.

Prof Jorge Viñuales, co-author, said: “Contrary to investor expectations, the stranding of fossil fuel assets may happen even without new climate policies. Individual nations cannot avoid the situation by ignoring the Paris agreement or burying their heads in coal and tar sands.”

However, Mercure also warned that the transition was happening too slowly to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Although the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy would continue, to keep within 2C above pre-industrial levels – the limit set under the Paris agreement – would require much stronger government action and new policies.

That could also help investors by pointing the way to deflation of the carbon bubble before they make new investments in fossil fuel assets.

The paper supports the view of some policy and investment experts that economics and technology are now driving action on climate change, where before impetus was all from policymakers. Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres told the Guardian, a year after Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement: “There is a big difference between the economics of climate change and the politics of climate change. Is Trump going to stop that advance [by businesses towards low-carbon technologies]? I don’t think so.”

Frédéric Samama, of Europe’s biggest asset manager Amundi, also believes investors have reached a “tipping point”, in relation to taking action on greenhouse gases through their portfolio management. He told Bloomberg last month that “until recently, the question” of climate change was “not on their radar screen”.

Separately, an analysis in Nature Energy forecast that global energy demand would be about 40% lower than today by 2050, despite rises in population and income, and a growing global economy. The authors found that such a scenario would allow the world to stay within 1.5C of warming, the aspirational goal set under the Paris agreement.

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