2012-06-18 REVISED New developments. How far is Harper from losing Majority Government? Conservative MP Calgary Centre resignation. The Supreme Court will hear Etobicoke Centre Election result July 10.

Hey!  Many thanks to Penny – – I revised the math (How close is Harper to losing Majority Government?).  It’s gets even better!:

• There’s the by-election in Calgary Centre coming up (Conservative Member-of-Parliament resigned May 30).  See 2012-06-12  Elections Canada Notice of By-Election in Calgary Centre.  Conservative Member-of-Parliament Lee Richardson resigned May 30.
• The best link for current standings in Parliament shows another question mark – the Edmonton Conservative who is now Independent (but who might still vote Conservative?).   2012-06-18  Party standings in House of Commons with changes since last election

The information below is revised (June 18).

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Harper might lose his majority government,  sooner than the next scheduled Federal Election in 2015.    Look at recent developments and then do the math.

1.    The Supreme Court will hear the Etobicoke Centre appeal of election results on July 10th  (2012-06-15 Former Liberal MP welcomes rare July sitting for high court on election case). The likely outcome in my mind, is a by-election.

2.    It is possible that Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro (Peterborough) will go down.  He is in serious trouble with Elections Canada’s investigation of his 2008 campaign financing.  When the court document became public, citizens quickly responded with further damning evidence of their own.  They had been asked to make a contribution of $1000 to Del Mastro’s campaign, in return for which they received $1050 back.

• 2012-06-06 and -07:   Elections Canada says in a court document it has  reasonable grounds to believe offences were committed by Dean Del Mastro, who  serves as Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s parliamentary secretary, and by his  campaign’s official agent.  Del Mastro has also led the Government’s defence against the robocall scandal.
• 2012-06-16 Employees linked to cousin’s company each gave $1,000 to Del Mastro campaign

3.    There are the 7 robocall ridings.

4.    And the resignation of Conservative MP Lee Richardson for Calgary Centre.  2012-06-12  Elections Canada Notice of By-Election in Calgary Centre.  Conservative Member-of-Parliament Lee Richardson resigned May 30.

4.    It’s possible that more citizens in other ridings “know things” and will also be motivated to speak up.

This is where we have a role to play.   IF PEOPLE DO NOT KNOW what happened in Mississauga (contributions to Del Mastro), and how citizens spoke up, they are not in a position to help out.

If YOU didn’t know about it, THEY are unlikely to know.

So – – spread the word!  It’s the only way to defend against fraud, corruption and the slide down the slope to loss of democracy.

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DO THE MATH:  What is the potential for taking down Harper’s Conservative majority government?

THE CONSERVATIVES CONTROL, or did control:

166    votes (seats)  in the House of Commons, the 2011 Election Results.

165    seats, adjusted number (the Edmonton Conservative who is now Independent might still vote Conservative)

155    seats  constitute majority government  (308 seats in total, (1/2 + 1)  = (154 + 1 = 155))
154    seats is a minority of seats

(165 – 154 = 11)  A loss of 11 seats =  Conservative Minority Government

Adjust for Speaker-of-the-House:
(-  1 )    Andrew Scheer, Conservative.  By the Constitution, the Speaker cannot vote unless his or her vote would break a tie.

So, the loss of  10 seats would mean Conservative loss of control of the House of Commons.

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Number of seats currently at risk (by-election potential):

1   Calgary Centre by-election.

1   Etobicoke Centre.

June 15,  The Supreme Court “says it will hear the Etobicoke Centre case in an unusual summer sitting on July 10.”  (Conservative MP Ted Opitz won the seat by 26 votes. Liberal candidate Borys Wrzesnewskyj immediately after the Election challenged the results in Court.   In May, Judge Thomas Lederer of the Ontario Superior Court found that Elections Canada officials made clerical errors at the polls. He threw out 79 votes and overturned the final result which the Conservatives then appealed.  And now the news,  2012-06-15 Former Liberal MP welcomes rare July sitting for high court on election case.)

1     Del Mastro’s riding of Peterborough, as explained above.
7     Robocall ridings

• Don Valley East in Ontario, won by Conservative MP Joe Daniel by 870 votes.
• Nipissing-Timiskaming in Ontario, won by Conservative MP Jay Aspin by 18 votes.
• Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar in Saskatchewan, won by Conservative Kelly Block by 538 votes.
• Vancouver Island North in B.C., won by Conservative John Duncan by 1,827 votes.
• Winnipeg South Centre in Manitoba, won by Conservative MP Joyce Bateman by 722 votes.
• Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, won by Conservative MP Lawrence Toet by 300 votes.
• Yukon won by Conservative Ryan Leef by 132 votes.

TOTAL :   10  ridings at risk because of potential by-elections

Viewed from the not-Conservative side of the House: ( 2012-06-18  Party standings in House of Commons with changes since last election )

Harper does not control these votes:  NDP 101 + Liberal 35 + the Bloc 4  +  Green 1  +  Independent 2 + Vacant 1  = 144 votes.  Except that you can’t count on the Edmonton former Conservative to vote against the Conservatives.  = 143 votes.

10 by-elections won on this side of the equation = 153 votes.

Conservatives would be at 164 – 10 = 154,   minus The Speaker = 153 votes.

The now Independent, former Conservative would have a lot of clout.  His views are  – – – see for yourself:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Goldring.   Not exactly a fount of wisdom.

Another robocall riding would be welcome! Or, maybe Elections Canada will uncover more fraudulent campaign funding.

We all have a role to play:

• Tell everyone who knows anyone in Calgary: they have a by-election coming in Calgary Centre. We need all eligible voters to vote. 2012-06-12 Elections Canada Notice of By-Election in Calgary Centre. Conservative Member-of-Parliament Lee Richardson resigned May 30.
• spread the word.  If people know about dubious campaign funding, election expenses that didn’t get reported, or voting by people outside their riding, or who weren’t eligible to vote, please help us:  tell Elections Canada.  If you find such a person, help or support them in their efforts.

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The Conservatives are doing what they can to block progress on the robocall ridings through the Courts.  But the Supreme Court expedited the Etobicoke Centre case.

If we get off our butts, the Harper majority could go down.  We could have by-elections in 10 ridings, with the first two coming up pretty soon.

It replenishes my faith and fires my spirit to see citizens who “know something”,  speak up.  In the Del Mastro instance, I believe that most of them are from Mississauga.

Let’s hear a thundering round of applause for the defenders of Canadian values:

• in Mississauga
• the (literally) HUNDREDS of thousands in Quebec
• all those thousands who worked across Canada to draw Bill C-38 to attention.

I do believe we will overcome the greedy and unscrupulous who embrace not-Canadian, not-human corporate values.